What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 5?"?

As of Sun, 03 May 2026 00:22:57 GMT, YES is priced at 2% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -6.3pp in the last 24 hours.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 5, 2026. Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate.

How much is being traded on this market?

$18.15 traded in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume: $18.15. Open liquidity in the orderbook: $95.18.

Where can I see the live data, signals, and whale flow for this market?

Orrery's per-market terminal at https://orrery.me/markets/will-threads-be-2-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-may-5 renders a 7-day probability chart, recent trades scoped to this market, top YES/NO holders, all firing signals (momentum / divergence / flow / resolution-risk), and an AI-generated movement explanation. A machine-readable Markdown summary is available at https://orrery.me/markets/will-threads-be-2-free-app-in-the-us-apple-app-store-on-may-5/markdown.

BusinessMulti-outcomeExpires May 5, 2026

Creator

Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 5?

Probability

2¢

+0.0pp

24h

-6.3pp

24h Vol

$18.15

Liquidity

$95.18

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk

End date: May 5, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
to the iOS app, ranked #2 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as
Link
apps.apple.com
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Market expires May 5, 2026 — dispute window active.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d

May 1, 2026, 23:00May 3, 2026, 00:22

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors

01
Price move
Down 6pp over 24h
Now 2¢; flat in the last hour.
02
Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 48h.
03
Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $95 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 48 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk

End date: May 5, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Primary
to the iOS app, ranked #2 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as
Link
apps.apple.com
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Market expires May 5, 2026 — dispute window active.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

0s agoResolve
Market resolves in 47.6h
HIGH
00:22Signal
Resolution risk
Expires in 48h.
MEDIUM

Price movement

-6.3pp over the last 24h, now 2¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feed Browse related markets Alert me on the next trade

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Same event#2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 5?

Category · Business

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #2 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date. To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

6 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket