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PoliticsExpires Apr 25, 2026

Will Trump say "Wall Street" during WHCA Dinner events?

Probability

42¢

1h

-4.0pp

24h

+13.5pp

24h Vol

$79.67

Liquidity

$908.12

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 21, 2026, 04:00Apr 25, 2026, 15:52
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  1. 1

    Up 14pp over 24h

    Now 42¢; -4.0pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 12.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

  4. 4

    Past expiry — awaiting resolution

    Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 15:52Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    MEDIUM
  • 15:00Price

    Probability down -4.0pp

    to 46¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability down -3.5pp

    to 48¢

    MEDIUM
  • 07:00Price

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 55¢

    MEDIUM
  • 04:00Price

    Probability down -4.5pp

    to 49¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability up 10.0pp

    to 56¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Resolve

    Market resolved 16h ago

    HIGH
  • 23:00Price

    Probability up 3.5pp

    to 51¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability down -20.0pp

    to 40¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability down -36.0pp

    to 26¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability down -37.0pp

    to 27¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability down -41.5pp

    to 26¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability down -35.0pp

    to 26¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -24.5pp

    to 37¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -8.5pp

    to 54¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -9.0pp

    to 54¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -13.0pp

    to 54¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -13.5pp

    to 55¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -13.0pp

    to 56¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability down -18.0pp

    to 55¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -14.5pp

    to 56¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -14.5pp

    to 56¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

Donald Trump is scheduled to participate in the White House Correspondents' Association Dinner events on April 25, 2026. (see: https://whca.press/news/annual-dinner/) This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the WHCA Dinner events scheduled for April 25, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If clips of old interviews or prerecorded videos are aired where Trump is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution. Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by April 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Apr 25, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires Apr 25, 2026 — dispute window active.
  • Wide spread (12.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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