SportsExpires Jun 15, 2026
Creator

Will Trump say "Winner" during UFC 250?

Probability

6¢

1h

-1.0pp

24h

-48.0pp

24h Vol

$543.01

Liquidity

$85.31

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

EXPIRED

Reason

Expiry is in the past but upstream has not confirmed a resolution.

Expiry passed and the market has not been officially resolved. Do not treat the price as the outcome.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Jun 15, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
the entirety of the UFC Freedom 250 broadcast, from the moment the stream begins to the moment it ends, including all pr
Type
Ambiguous wording
Confidence
extracted · low
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires Jun 15, 2026 — dispute window active.
  • Wide spread (7.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
6¢
Jun 11, 2026, 15:00 UTCJun 15, 2026, 13:48 UTC
updated 13:48:54 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-15T13-48Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 48pp over 24h

    Now 6¢; -1.0pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

  • 03
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 7.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

resolution sensitive
Trust transition

The event window has passed and the market should not be read as settled until the upstream resolution path is confirmed.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: the entirety of the UFC Freedom 250 broadcast, from the moment the stream begins to the moment it ends, including all pr

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Settlement state

required

Check whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved.

Current evidence: Expired, unresolved

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Will Trump say "Winner" during UFC 250? State: Expired, unresolved — resolution sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Settlement state: Check whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Will Trump say "Winner" during UFC 250? State: resolution sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 13:48Signal

    Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    MEDIUM
  • 03:59Scheduled resolution

    Expiry passed 10h ago; not yet resolved upstream

    HIGH

Price movement

-48.0pp over the last 24h, now 6¢.

Biggest hourly move: -45.0pp at 13:00 (to 7¢).

Show top 8 of 17 hourly moves
  • 13:00 · -45.0pp → 7¢
  • 11:00 · -41.5pp → 8¢
  • 07:00 · -40.5pp → 22¢
  • 06:00 · -34.0pp → 22¢
  • 05:00 · -34.5pp → 21¢
  • 03:00 · -37.0pp → 22¢
  • 02:00 · -29.0pp → 24¢
  • 00:00 · -31.0pp → 24¢
updated 13:48:54 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 13:48:54 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

14
Same eventWhat will Trump say during UFC Freedom 250?
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is spoken by Donald Trump during the UFC Freedom 250 broadcast on June 14, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the entirety of the UFC Freedom 250 broadcast, from the moment the stream begins to the moment it ends, including all pre-fight and post-fight segments. Prerecorded clips of Trump speaking will not count toward this market's resolution. Commercials which are not part of the show itself will not qualify toward this market's resolution. AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market. Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy"). If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a term, a full-phrase mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about "United / States 5+ times," a mention of "United States" will count once; if a market is about "Joe / Biden" 5+ times, a mention of "Joe Biden" will count once). If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not available by June 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, "-No Qualifying Event-" will resolve to "Yes" and all other brackets will resolve to "No". If this event is only partially available by June 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to what has occurred up to that point. The resolution source for this market is the official CBS and Paramount+ broadcast of this event. Only remarks made live by Donald Trump during the official broadcast will count toward this market's resolution. Transcripts will not count.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

ufc

Reason

UFC — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Trump say "Winner" during UFC 250?"?

As of Mon, 15 Jun 2026 13:48:54 GMT, YES is priced at 6% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -48.0pp in the last 24 hours, -1.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 15, 2026 (2026-06-15T03:59:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$543.01 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $593.58. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $85.31. Spread between best bid and best ask: 7.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

14 wallets
Open on Polymarket