Will the USA or European Union report a higher 7-day COVID-19 case average per capita on November 16?

• 01
  Active signal

  Resolution-risk observation firing

  Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

• 02
  Spread cost

  Wide spread — 100.0¢

  Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

This is a market on whether the United States of America or European Union will report a higher 7-day COVID-19 case average per capita on November 16, 2021. This market will resolve on data aggregated by Our World in Data, specifically, the 7-day rolling average of COVID-19 cases for the United States and European Union, with Metric "Confirmed Cases", Interval "7-day rolling average", and the Relative to Population checkbox checked, which is available at https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer. The resolution source will be reviewed on November 17th at 11 PM ET and - if the data for November 16 will not be available then - checked again every 12 hours, until the final check on November 22, 2021, 11 PM ET. If the data is not available by then, this market will resolve based on other credible sources for the day of November 16. If the United States of America has a higher 7-day COVID-19 case average per capita for the day of November 16, 2021, the market will resolve to "USA." If the European Union has a higher 7-day COVID-19 case average per capita for the day of November 16, 2021, the market will resolve to "European Union." If the averages per capita are the same, the market will resolve 50/50. -------------------- OWiD dataset uses the most recent official numbers from governments and health ministries worldwide. Population estimates for per-capita metrics are based on the United Nations World Population Prospects. Here: https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/tree/master/public/data one can find a detailed list of all our country-specific sources.

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