Will VfL Wolfsburg place 16th for the 2025-26 Bundesliga season?
Probability
26¢
1h
+0.5pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$11.00
Liquidity
$54.46
Probability (last 7 days)
-22.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 841h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 42.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 841.1h
- 22:56SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 841h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 26¢.
Biggest hourly move: -24.0pp at 2d ago (to 25¢).
Show top 8 of 45 hourly moves
- 1d ago · -24.0pp → 25¢
- 1d ago · -24.0pp → 25¢
- 1d ago · -24.0pp → 25¢
- 2d ago · -24.0pp → 25¢
- 2d ago · -24.0pp → 25¢
- 2d ago · -24.0pp → 25¢
- 2d ago · -24.0pp → 25¢
- 2d ago · -24.0pp → 25¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team finishes 16th in the 2025-26 Bundesliga. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to finish 16th in the 2025-26 Bundesliga (e.g. they mathematically cannot finish in 16th), the associated market will resolve to "No". If the 2025-2026 Bundesliga season is cancelled, postponed after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no 16th place team declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundesliga; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (42.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.