Will @Whale_Alert tweet count be over 61,300 on January 31 (10 AM ET)?

• 01
  Active signal

  Resolution-risk observation firing

  Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

• 02
  Spread cost

  Wide spread — 100.0¢

  Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

This is a market on a total amount of tweets on the @whale_alert Twitter account, as indicated by the resolution source (https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/), on the resolution date of January 31 2022, 10 AM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the resolution source indicates 61,301 or more tweets have been posted from the @whale_alert Twitter account, by the resolution date and to "No" otherwise. If the resolution source is unavailable at the resolution time, it will be checked every 6 hours until it is, and the most recent data will be used. If it is still unavailable after 12 checks, this market will resolve 50-50. Whale Alert is a Twitter bot triggered each time a significant transaction is made on the most popular cryptocurrency networks. Minimum thresholds for the transactions are listed here: https://whale-alert.io/whales ---------------------------------- Additional Market Information: - To see the official cumulative tweet count on the resolution source, search the resolution source for the @whale_alert Twitter account, and check the cumulative numbers of tweets under the “TWEETS” field. - The number by which the total tweets at expiration exceeds the Baseline may not equal the number of tweets actually posted over that time period, in light of numerous factors, including but not limited to the fact that the account's total tweets upon launch of the market may differ from the Baseline, tweets may be deleted prior to the expiration of this market, and specialized tweets such as quotes, retweets, replies, promoted tweets, may or may not be included in that total. - Neither any authorized user of the account in question, need to be the author of any such tweets, nor must any authorized user maintain control of the account.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.