Will XRP dip to $1.20 on May 8?
Probability
4¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$7.99
Liquidity
$4.8K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Resolves in 13h.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 9, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 9, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (6.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 13h. Spread is extremely wide.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 6.8¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 13 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 9, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 9, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (6.8¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 04:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 13.2h
- 14:49SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Expires in 13h. Spread is extremely wide.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 4¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for XRP (XRP/USDT) on the date specified in the title, between 12:00 AM ET and 11:59 PM ET has a final "Low" price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT "Low" prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance XRP/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will XRP dip to $1.20 on May 8?"?
As of Fri, 08 May 2026 14:49:49 GMT, YES is priced at 4% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, -0.1pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 9, 2026 (2026-05-09T04:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$7.99 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $7.99. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $4.8K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 6.8¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
