SportsExpires Jun 20, 2026
Creator

Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries

Probability

57¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+2.0pp

24h Vol

$6.2K

Liquidity

$33.9K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

NEAR EXPIRY

Reason

Resolves in 17h.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Methodology explanation

Review-only opportunity

No paper intent is emitted from the public opportunity row. Paper action appears only after the paper governor evaluates the row.

read_only_explanationpaper-onlysend false

Why this market is in review

signal

Resolution-source risk

45% source confidence on this opportunity row.

Paper-only action

paper-only

Review-only opportunity

read_only_explanation; no live order, no network send, no raw secrets.

Risk / veto readback

review

Resolution review required

The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.

Source evidence

source

4 mapped surfaces

118/148 sources runtime-backed; not every paper is a runtime module.

Signals

  • Resolution-source riskwatch

    45% source confidence on this opportunity row.

Veto / blockers

  • Resolution review requiredwatch

    The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.

  • Confidence below paper gatewatch

    Paper policy needs at least 72% confidence before any paper intent can be proposed.

Costs / sizing

Research score
Composite opportunity score before paper-governor costs and vetoes.
30
Capacity
Estimated research capacity, not an approved size.
$3k
Liquidity
Market liquidity visible on the opportunity row.
$34k
Explanation packet2026-06-16.1
DecisionSignalsVetoes and capsCostsDriftShadow policyLearning statusAuthority
What can be learned
Source-to-runtime coverage118/148 runtime-backed0 unmapped

not every paper is a runtime module; this card cites mapped surfaces only.

P32-Source-to-Runtime-Coverage-Matrix-v1semantic_risk_kernelmethodology_runtime_boundarypromotion_gate+3
live falsesecrets falsetraining falsenot advice

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Jun 20, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
based on the final score including any overtime periods
Link
wnba.com
Type
Ambiguous wording
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires Jun 20, 2026 — dispute window active.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-4.5pp 7d
1007550250
57¢
Jun 12, 2026, 10:00 UTCJun 19, 2026, 09:24 UTC
updated 09:24:09 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-19T09-24Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 2pp over 24h

    Now 57¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Volume pressure

    Light volume — move on a thin book

    Only $6.2k traded against $33.9k of visible liquidity (0.18× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.

  • 03
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 17h.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 17 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

live to resolution sensitive
Trust transition

The market is still live, but settlement mechanics are becoming the most important thing to verify.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: https://www.wnba.com/scores

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Settlement state

required

Check whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved.

Current evidence: Near expiry

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries State: Near expiry — live to resolution sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Settlement state: Check whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries State: live to resolution sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary ambiguous wording source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 02:00Scheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 16.6h

    HIGH
  • 09:24Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 17h.

    MEDIUM

Price movement

+2.0pp over the last 24h, now 57¢.

Biggest hourly move: -10.5pp at 06:00 (to 57¢).

Show top 8 of 30 hourly moves
  • 09:00 · -10.0pp → 57¢
  • 07:00 · -10.5pp → 57¢
  • 06:00 · -10.5pp → 57¢
  • 02:00 · -8.0pp → 57¢
  • Jun 18, 09:00 UTC · -8.0pp → 56¢
  • Jun 18, 03:00 UTC · -6.5pp → 56¢
  • Jun 17, 03:00 UTC · +6.5pp → 69¢
  • Jun 17, 02:00 UTC · +6.5pp → 69¢
updated 09:24:09 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 09:24:09 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

12
Same eventMinnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries
Category · Sports

Market Description

In the upcoming WNBA game, scheduled for June 19 at 10:00PM ET: If the Minnesota Lynx win, the market will resolve to "Minnesota Lynx". If the Golden State Valkyries win, the market will resolve to "Golden State Valkyries". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

nba

Reason

NBA — Sports.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries"?

As of Fri, 19 Jun 2026 09:24:09 GMT, YES is priced at 57% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +2.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -4.5pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 20, 2026 (2026-06-20T02:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.wnba.com/scores.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.wnba.com/scores. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$6.2K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $10.5K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $33.9K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket