SportsExpires May 21, 2026
Creator

Set Handicap: Gauff (-1.5) vs Cirstea (+1.5)

Probability

100¢

1h

+39.5pp

24h

+55.5pp

24h Vol

$34.6K

Liquidity

$90.4K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

PINNED YES

Reason

YES price is near 100¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.

Treat as effectively priced-in, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 21, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
official WTA result
Link
wtatennis.com
Type
Official sports result
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
100¢
May 13, 2026, 00:00 UTCMay 14, 2026, 15:08 UTC
updated 15:08:42 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-14T15-08Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 55pp over 24h

    Now 100¢; +39.5pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Momentum observation firing

    Probability moved up 55.5pp in 24h with 0.4× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability drops back below 95¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Watch the next 6–24 hours: momentum observations historically extend on this kind of setup but pay spread on entry. Compare to /backtest for the rule's historical performance.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • May 21, 11:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 163.9h

    LOW
  • 15:08Signal

    Momentum up

    Probability moved up 55.5pp in 24h with 0.4× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    HIGH

Price movement

+55.5pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.

updated 15:08:42 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 15:08:42 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

6
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market refers to the tennis match between Coco Gauff and Sorana Cirstea in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 14, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Gauff" if Coco Gauff wins by 2 or more sets than Sorana Cirstea, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Cirstea." If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official WTA results.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

wta

Reason

WTA-tour tennis tournament marker.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Set Handicap: Gauff (-1.5) vs Cirstea (+1.5)"?

As of Thu, 14 May 2026 15:08:42 GMT, YES is priced at 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +55.5pp in the last 24 hours, +39.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 21, 2026 (2026-05-21T11:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.wtatennis.com/scores.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.wtatennis.com/scores. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$34.6K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $34.7K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $90.4K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket