SportsExpires May 2, 2026

Madrid Open: Anhelina Kalinina vs Naomi Osaka

Probability

1h

-36.0pp

24h

-38.0pp

24h Vol

$235.7K

Liquidity

$112.6K

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 23, 2026, 23:00Apr 25, 2026, 20:35
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Down 38pp over 24h

    Now 5¢; -36.0pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Heavy volume on this book — 2.1× turnover

    $235.7k traded against $112.6k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

  3. 3

    Momentum signal firing

    Probability moved down 38.0pp in 24h with 2.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability recovers above 10¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Watch the next 6–24 hours: momentum signals historically extend on this kind of setup but pay spread on entry. Compare to /backtest for the rule's historical performance.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 156.4h

    LOW
  • 20:35Signal

    Momentum down

    Probability moved down 38.0pp in 24h with 2.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    HIGH

Price movement

-39.1pp over the last 24h, now 3¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market refers to the tennis match between Anhelina Kalinina and Naomi Osaka in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 25, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Anhelina Kalinina' if Anhelina Kalinina advances against Naomi Osaka. This market will resolve to 'Naomi Osaka' if Naomi Osaka advances against Anhelina Kalinina. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 2, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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