SportsExpires May 15, 2026
Creator

Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Madison Keys vs Peyton Stearns

Probability

13¢

1h

-46.5pp

24h

-48.5pp

24h Vol

$226.0K

Liquidity

$95.7K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 15, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
Official WTA Tour data
Link
wtatennis.com
Type
Official sports result
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
May 6, 2026, 17:00May 8, 2026, 14:17
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-08T14-45Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 49pp over 24h

    Now 13¢; -46.5pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Volume pressure

    Heavy volume on this book — 2.4× turnover

    $226.0k traded against $95.7k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

  • 03
    Active signal

    Momentum observation firing

    Probability moved down 48.5pp in 24h with 2.4× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability recovers above 18¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Watch the next 6–24 hours: momentum observations historically extend on this kind of setup but pay spread on entry. Compare to /backtest for the rule's historical performance.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 162.2h

    LOW
  • 14:45Signal

    Momentum down

    Probability moved down 48.5pp in 24h with 2.4× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

    HIGH

Price movement

-48.5pp over the last 24h, now 13¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

1
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

11
Same eventInternazionali BNL d'Italia: Madison Keys vs Peyton Stearns
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market refers to the tennis match between Madison Keys and Peyton Stearns in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 8, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Madison Keys' if Madison Keys advances against Peyton Stearns. This market will resolve to 'Peyton Stearns' if Peyton Stearns advances against Madison Keys. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

wta

Reason

WTA-tour tennis tournament marker.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Madison Keys vs Peyton Stearns"?

As of Fri, 08 May 2026 14:45:20 GMT, YES is priced at 13% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -48.5pp in the last 24 hours, -46.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 15, 2026 (2026-05-15T09:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.wtatennis.com/scores.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.wtatennis.com/scores. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$226.0K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $226.1K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $95.7K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.

Top Holders

20 wallets
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