Set 1 Winner: Maia vs Krueger

• 01
  Price move

  Down 41pp over 24h

  Now 0¢; -0.4pp in the last hour.

• 02
  Active signal

  Resolution-risk signal firing

  UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

• 03
  Liquidity

  Thin liquidity

  Only $16.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

• 04
  UMA status

  UMA status: proposed

  An open UMA dispute or pending oracle vote can move price independently of underlying odds. Wait for settlement before treating the line as the market view.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

This market refers to the tennis match between Beatriz Haddad Maia and Ashlyn Krueger in the La Bisbal, originally scheduled for April 29, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to “Maia” if Beatriz Haddad Maia wins the first set. It will resolve to “Krueger” if Ashlyn Krueger wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official WTA Challenger match statistics.