Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Completed Match: Naomi Osaka vs Diana Shnaider
Probability
99¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+49.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$5.67
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
YES price is near 100¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.
Treat as effectively priced-in, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 17, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Up 49pp over 24h
Now 99¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $6 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability drops back below 94¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 17, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 161.6h
Price movement
+49.5pp over the last 24h, now 99¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market refers to the tennis match between Naomi Osaka and Diana Shnaider in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 10, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Yes" if all games and sets required to determine a match winner under governing body or event organizer rules are played to completion through normal play. Otherwise, if the match is not completed for any reason, it will resolve to "No." If a forfeit of any kind occurs, including but not limited to a walkover or retirement, this market will resolve "No." If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
internazionali bnlReason
Italian Open tennis (Internazionali BNL d'Italia) — surfaced as Unclassified in May 2026 audit.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Completed Match: Naomi Osaka vs Diana Shnaider"?
As of Sun, 10 May 2026 15:23:41 GMT, YES is priced at 99% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +49.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 17, 2026 (2026-05-17T09:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.wtatennis.com/scores.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wtatennis.com/scores. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $0.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $5.67. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.9¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.
