Set 1 Winner: Ostapenko vs Anisimova
Probability
46¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$3.0K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 14, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $3.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 14, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 179.2h
- 00:47SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 46¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
14- 46¢0.0
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jelena Ostapenko vs Amanda Anisimova
Sports · Vol $1.3K
- 40¢0.0
Jelena Ostapenko vs. Amanda Anisimova: Total Sets O/U 2.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 34¢0.0
Set Handicap: Anisimova (-1.5) vs Ostapenko (+1.5)
Sports · Vol $283.61
- 50¢0.0
Ostapenko vs. Anisimova: Match O/U 21.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 67¢0.0
Ostapenko vs. Anisimova: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 51¢0.0
Ostapenko vs. Anisimova: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 44¢0.0
Ostapenko vs. Anisimova: Match O/U 22.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
- 22¢0.0
Ostapenko vs. Anisimova: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5
Sports · Vol $0.00
Market Description
This market refers to the tennis match between Jelena Ostapenko and Amanda Anisimova in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 7, 2026 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to “Ostapenko” if Jelena Ostapenko wins the first set. It will resolve to “Anisimova” if Amanda Anisimova wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official WTA match statistics.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
SportsReason
No rule fired; using Polymarket's own category hint "Sports".
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Set 1 Winner: Ostapenko vs Anisimova"?
As of Thu, 07 May 2026 00:47:33 GMT, YES is priced at 46% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 14, 2026 (2026-05-14T12:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.wtatennis.com/scores.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wtatennis.com/scores. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $0.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $3.0K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 3.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
Top Holders
No holder data from the Data API.
