Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karolina Pliskova vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro

• 01
  Price move

  Up 37pp over 24h

  Now 100¢; +20.4pp in the last hour.

• 02
  Active signal

  Momentum signal firing

  Probability moved up 37.5pp in 24h with 0.8× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

• 03
  Active signal

  Resolution-risk signal firing

  UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

This market refers to the tennis match between Karolina Pliskova and Jessica Bouzas Maneiro in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 5, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Karolina Pliskova' if Karolina Pliskova advances against Jessica Bouzas Maneiro. This market will resolve to 'Jessica Bouzas Maneiro' if Jessica Bouzas Maneiro advances against Karolina Pliskova. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.