Yulia Putintseva vs. Tereza Valentova: Total Sets O/U 2.5
Probability
50¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
+9.5pp
24h Vol
$25.00
Liquidity
$4.90
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 12, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (97.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 10pp over 24h
Now 50¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 97.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 12, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (97.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 137.6h
- 15:22SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+9.5pp over the last 24h, now 50¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market refers to the tennis match between Yulia Putintseva and Tereza Valentova in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 5, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of sets completed equals or exceeds 3. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." A super tie breaker is considered as one (1) set for total set markets. If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official WTA statistics.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Yulia Putintseva vs. Tereza Valentova: Total Sets O/U 2.5"?
As of Wed, 06 May 2026 15:22:19 GMT, YES is priced at 50% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +9.5pp in the last 24 hours, -0.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 12, 2026 (2026-05-12T09:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.wtatennis.com/scores.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wtatennis.com/scores. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$25.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $25.00. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $4.90. Spread between best bid and best ask: 97.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
