Set 1 Winner: Ren vs Hercog
Probability
29¢
1h
-1.0pp
24h
-21.0pp
24h Vol
$1.41
Liquidity
$978.71
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 7, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 21pp over 24h
Now 29¢; -1.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $979 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 171.8h
- 23:10SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
Price movement
-21.0pp over the last 24h, now 29¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market refers to the tennis match between Yufei Ren and Polona Hercog in the Huzhou, originally scheduled for April 29, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to “Ren” if Yufei Ren wins the first set. It will resolve to “Hercog” if Polona Hercog wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official WTA Challenger match statistics.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 7, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
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