Set Handicap: Samsonova (-1.5) vs Siegemund (+1.5)
Probability
4¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-4.5pp
24h Vol
$5.00
Liquidity
$680.79
Probability (last 7 days)
-4.4pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 5 factors- 1
Down 5pp over 24h
Now 4¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 3
Wide spread — 8.6¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 4
Past expiry — awaiting resolution
Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.
- 5
UMA status: proposed
An open UMA dispute or pending oracle vote can move price independently of underlying odds. Wait for settlement before treating the line as the market view.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 19:27SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
Price movement
-4.6pp over the last 24h, now 4¢.
Biggest hourly move: -4.5pp at 14:00 (to 4¢).
Show all 8 hour-by-hour ticks
- 19:00 · -4.4pp → 4¢
- 17:00 · -4.5pp → 4¢
- 15:00 · -4.5pp → 4¢
- 14:00 · -4.5pp → 4¢
- 2d ago · +3.9pp → 13¢
- 2d ago · +3.7pp → 13¢
- 2d ago · +3.6pp → 12¢
- 2d ago · +3.7pp → 12¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market refers to the tennis match between Liudmila Samsonova and Laura Siegemund in the Australian Open WTA, scheduled for January 18 2026. This market will resolve to "Samsonova" if Liudmila Samsonova wins by 2 or more sets than Laura Siegemund, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Siegemund." If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Grand Slam results.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Feb 1, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Wide spread (8.6¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.