Set Handicap: Pliskova (-1.5) vs Sierra (+1.5)
Probability
39¢
1h
-0.5pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$2.2K
Liquidity
$9.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 1
Thin liquidity
Only $9.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 167.4h
Price movement
-27.5pp over the last 24h, now 39¢.
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market refers to the tennis match between Karolina Pliskova and Solana Sierra in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 27, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Pliskova" if Karolina Pliskova wins by 2 or more sets than Solana Sierra, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Sierra." If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official WTA results.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 4, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
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