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CryptoExpires May 1, 2026

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?

Probability

46¢

1h

+1.0pp

24h

-10.0pp

24h Vol

$255.5K

Liquidity

$151.1K

Probability (last 7 days)

+4.0pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 16:00Apr 25, 2026, 15:06
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  1. 1

    Down 10pp over 24h

    Now 46¢; +1.0pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Heavy volume on this book — 1.7× turnover

    $255.5k traded against $151.1k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

  3. 3

    Divergence signal firing

    Price is moving against its 24h trend — 1h +1.0pp vs. 24h -10.0pp.

  4. 4

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 133h with open resolution ambiguity.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 132.9h

    LOW
  • 15:06Signal

    Signal · Short-term vs. trend divergence

    Price is moving against its 24h trend — 1h +1.0pp vs. 24h -10.0pp.

    MEDIUM
  • 15:06Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 133h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 15:00Price

    Probability down -15.0pp

    to 46¢

    MEDIUM
  • 13:00Price

    Probability down -25.0pp

    to 45¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability down -19.0pp

    to 47¢

    MEDIUM
  • 10:00Price

    Probability down -29.0pp

    to 47¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability down -27.0pp

    to 45¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability down -32.5pp

    to 45¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability down -36.0pp

    to 44¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability down -29.5pp

    to 46¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability down -35.5pp

    to 47¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability down -31.0pp

    to 48¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability down -24.0pp

    to 45¢

    MEDIUM
  • 22:00Price

    Probability down -22.5pp

    to 45¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability down -19.0pp

    to 48¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability down -15.5pp

    to 50¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability down -7.0pp

    to 53¢

    MEDIUM
  • 16:00Price

    Probability down -3.5pp

    to 58¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 16.5pp

    to 58¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 18.0pp

    to 62¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 19.5pp

    to 62¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 16.5pp

    to 51¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 13.0pp

    to 49¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 20.0pp

    to 53¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 16.0pp

    to 51¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 15.0pp

    to 53¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 15.0pp

    to 53¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 13.0pp

    to 61¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability up 14.5pp

    to 65¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final High price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT High prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Resolution & Risk

MEDIUM risk
End date
May 1, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Binary
  • No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).