CryptoExpires May 3, 2026

Set Handicap: Sonmez (-1.5) vs Sierra (+1.5)

Probability

40¢

1h

-0.5pp

24h

-10.5pp

24h Vol

$31.47

Liquidity

$6.6K

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
Apr 24, 2026, 18:00Apr 25, 2026, 17:50
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Down 11pp over 24h

    Now 40¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Thin liquidity

    Only $6.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability recovers above 45¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 183.2h

    LOW

Price movement

-10.5pp over the last 24h, now 40¢.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market refers to the tennis match between Zeynep Sonmez and Solana Sierra in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 26, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Sonmez" if Zeynep Sonmez wins by 2 or more sets than Solana Sierra, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Sierra." If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official WTA results.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 3, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
official WTA resultOfficial sports result
wtatennis.com
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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