Peyton Stearns vs. Daria Kasatkina: Total Sets O/U 2.5
Probability
50¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.0pp
24h Vol
$187.70
Liquidity
$0.00
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 27, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (100.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
- 02Spread cost
Wide spread — 100.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 27, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (100.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- May 27, 08:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 187.2h
- 12:50SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge.
Price movement
+0.0pp over the last 24h, now 50¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
6- 61¢+3.0
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?
Sports · Vol $1.8M
- 31¢+1.0
Cavaliers vs. Knicks
Sports · Vol $1.7M
- 0¢0.0
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoffs
Sports · Vol $1.0M
- 33¢-3.0
Spurs vs. Thunder
Sports · Vol $953.1K
- 2¢0.0
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $884.1K
- 94¢+15.5
Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Sports · Vol $832.2K
Market Description
This market refers to the tennis match between Peyton Stearns and Daria Kasatkina in the Internationaux de Strasbourg, originally scheduled for May 19, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of sets completed equals or exceeds 3. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." A super tie breaker is considered as one (1) set for total set markets. If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official WTA statistics.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
wta Reason
WTA-tour tennis tournament marker.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Peyton Stearns vs. Daria Kasatkina: Total Sets O/U 2.5"?
As of Tue, 19 May 2026 12:50:32 GMT, YES is priced at 50% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +0.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 27, 2026 (2026-05-27T08:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.wtatennis.com/scores.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wtatennis.com/scores. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$187.70 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $187.70. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $0.00. Spread between best bid and best ask: 100.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.