Set Handicap: Ostapenko (-1.5) vs Stefanini (+1.5)
Probability
100¢
1h
+2.0pp
24h
+28.9pp
24h Vol
$4.8K
Liquidity
$78.5K
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- May 12, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 29pp over 24h
Now 100¢; +2.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Momentum signal firing
Probability moved up 28.9pp in 24h with 0.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 03Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- May 12, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 142.1h
- 10:55SignalHIGH
Momentum up
Probability moved up 28.9pp in 24h with 0.1× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 10:55SignalLOW
Resolution risk
UMA dispute is active — settlement uncertainty, not new directional information.
Price movement
+28.9pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market refers to the tennis match between Jelena Ostapenko and Lucrezia Stefanini in the Internazionali BNL d'Italia, originally scheduled for May 5, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Ostapenko" if Jelena Ostapenko wins by 2 or more sets than Lucrezia Stefanini, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Stefanini." If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official WTA results.
Alerts
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