Madrid Open: Iga Swiatek vs Ann Li
Probability
84¢
1h
-7.5pp
24h
-8.5pp
24h Vol
$59.5K
Liquidity
$93.6K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Down 9pp over 24h
Now 84¢; -7.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Momentum signal firing
Probability moved down 8.5pp in 24h with 0.6× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability recovers above 89¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Watch the next 6–24 hours: momentum signals historically extend on this kind of setup but pay spread on entry. Compare to /backtest for the rule's historical performance.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 163.7h
- 13:15SignalHIGH
Signal · Momentum down
Probability moved down 8.5pp in 24h with 0.6× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
Active signals
Recent Trades
2- BUYIGA SWIATEK2m ago
- BUYIGA SWIATEK2m ago
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Market Description
This market refers to the tennis match between Iga Swiatek and Ann Li in the Madrid Open, originally scheduled for April 25, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Iga Swiatek' if Iga Swiatek advances against Ann Li. This market will resolve to 'Ann Li' if Ann Li advances against Iga Swiatek. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 2, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- https://www.wtatennis.com/scoresNews consensus
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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