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OtherExpires Apr 30, 2026

X Money released by April 30, 2026?

Probability

20¢

1h

-2.0pp

24h

+3.5pp

24h Vol

$41.44

Liquidity

$3.7K

Probability (last 7 days)

-14.0pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 15:00Apr 25, 2026, 13:11
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Up 4pp over 24h

    Now 20¢; -2.0pp in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 107h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Wide spread — 16.0¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 106.8h

    LOW
  • 13:11Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 107h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 13:11Price

    Probability up 5.5pp

    to 20¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 22¢

    MEDIUM
  • 11:00Price

    Probability up 5.5pp

    to 21¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 22¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability up 8.5pp

    to 24¢

    MEDIUM
  • 06:00Price

    Probability up 7.0pp

    to 23¢

    MEDIUM
  • 05:00Price

    Probability up 6.5pp

    to 22¢

    MEDIUM
  • 03:00Price

    Probability up 3.0pp

    to 19¢

    MEDIUM
  • 02:00Price

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 22¢

    MEDIUM
  • 00:00Price

    Probability up 8.5pp

    to 20¢

    MEDIUM
  • 23:00Price

    Probability up 9.5pp

    to 21¢

    MEDIUM
  • 21:00Price

    Probability up 10.0pp

    to 22¢

    MEDIUM
  • 20:00Price

    Probability up 9.0pp

    to 21¢

    MEDIUM
  • 18:00Price

    Probability up 10.0pp

    to 22¢

    MEDIUM
  • 17:00Price

    Probability up 10.0pp

    to 22¢

    MEDIUM
  • 14:00Price

    Probability up 4.5pp

    to 17¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 9.5pp

    to 23¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.5pp

    to 20¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 9.0pp

    to 24¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 27.5pp

    to 42¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 19.0pp

    to 34¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 19.0pp

    to 35¢

    MEDIUM
  • 1d agoPrice

    Probability up 16.5pp

    to 32¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -13.5pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -14.0pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -12.5pp

    to 15¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -21.0pp

    to 14¢

    MEDIUM
  • 2d agoPrice

    Probability down -11.5pp

    to 16¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

Elon Musk posted on X that X Money, X’s digital payment system will launch early public access next month (See: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2031363107839438939). This market will resolve to “Yes” if X Money is launched by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. X Money must be launched and publicly accessible to qualify, including via open beta, open rolling waitlist signups, or any other form of early public access launch. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by X as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official platform. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from X; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Apr 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Binary
  • Wide spread (16.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).