Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 4?
Probability
99¢
1h
+0.8pp
24h
+48.6pp
24h Vol
$10.5K
Liquidity
$19.9K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
YES price is near 100¢ but the market has not been officially resolved.
Treat as effectively priced-in, not settled. The market is still live until expiry.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 4, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryPyth futures price feedLinkTypeCommodity price feed / futures dataConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Jun 4, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 49pp over 24h
Now 99¢; +0.8pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 2h.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $19.9k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 2 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- Jun 4, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryPyth futures price feedLinkTypeCommodity price feed / futures dataConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires Jun 4, 2026 — dispute window active.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The price is pinned near a rail, but price is not settlement. Verify the official status before treating it as final.
Verification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary commodity price feed / futures data source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: Pyth futures price feed
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Price is not settlement
requiredVerify whether the market is officially resolved or merely pinned near 0¢/100¢.
Current evidence: 99¢ current price
Orrery verification task Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 4? State: Pinned near YES — price pinned not settled Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary commodity price feed / futures data source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Price is not settlement: Verify whether the market is officially resolved or merely pinned near 0¢/100¢. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 4? State: price pinned not settled Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 21:00Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 2.3h
- 18:44SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 2h.
Price movement
+48.6pp over the last 24h, now 99¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Market Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on June 4, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on June 4, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Gold (XAUUSD) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Gold (XAUUSD) does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, the market will resolve 50-50. Trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth. Under the standard schedule, trading is open from 6:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with a daily break from 5:00:00 PM ET to 6:00:00 PM ET, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours trading-hours as listed on Pyth. If a listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. For each trading day, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET on that date. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved prior to 4:59 PM ET during that trading day as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the closing price for that day may be determined using the official daily close price of the CME COMEX Gold Futures (GC) futures contract for that trading day. Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session will be considered. In the event of a contract specification change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 4?"?
As of Thu, 04 Jun 2026 18:44:07 GMT, YES is priced at 99% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +48.6pp in the last 24 hours, +0.8pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jun 4, 2026 (2026-06-04T21:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://pythdata.app/explore/Metal.XAU%2FUSD. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$10.5K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $10.5K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $19.9K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.7¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.