XRP Up or Down on May 2?
Probability
42¢
1h
-4.0pp
24h
-8.0pp
24h Vol
$5.1K
Liquidity
$10.5K
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 2, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 2, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 8pp over 24h
Now 42¢; -4.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 23h.
- 03Spread cost
Wide spread — 6.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 23 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 2, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 2, 2026 — dispute window active.
- Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 16:00ResolveHIGH
Market resolves in 22.6h
- 17:23SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 23h.
Price movement
-8.0pp over the last 24h, now 42¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for XRP/USDT May 1 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the May 2 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for XRP/USDT May 1 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the May 2 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance XRP/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Alerts
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