XRP Up or Down on May 9?
Probability
86¢
1h
-5.0pp
24h
+36.0pp
24h Vol
$519.91
Liquidity
$10.5K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Resolves in 17h.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 9, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 9, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 36pp over 24h
Now 86¢; -5.0pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Expires in 17h.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $10.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 17 hours.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 9, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- Market expires May 9, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 16:00Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Market resolves in 16.7h
- 23:17SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 17h.
Price movement
+36.0pp over the last 24h, now 86¢.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
2Market Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for XRP/USDT May 8 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the May 9 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for XRP/USDT May 8 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the May 9 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the XRP/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance XRP/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "XRP Up or Down on May 9?"?
As of Fri, 08 May 2026 23:17:30 GMT, YES is priced at 86% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +36.0pp in the last 24 hours, -5.0pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 9, 2026 (2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.binance.com/en/trade/XRP_USDT. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$519.91 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $519.91. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $10.5K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 4.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.
