Zuffa Boxing 6: Mosley Jr. vs. Bohachuk (Middleweight, Main)
Probability
100¢
1h
+0.4pp
24h
+66.5pp
24h Vol
$9.7K
Liquidity
$30.6K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Upstream UMA resolution status is 'proposed'.
Resolution is awaiting UMA confirmation. Price may move sharply when it settles.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 11, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires May 11, 2026 — dispute window active.
Probability (last 7 days)
+74.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Up 66pp over 24h
Now 100¢; +0.4pp in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Momentum observation firing
Probability moved up 66.5pp in 24h with 0.3× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 03Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
- Wait for the UMA proposal to settle (current status: proposed) — price moves now reflect oracle dynamics, not odds.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
HIGH risk- End date
- May 11, 2026
- UMA status
- proposed
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Binary
- UMA status: proposed
- Market expires May 11, 2026 — dispute window active.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 04:47SignalHIGH
Momentum up
Probability moved up 66.5pp in 24h with 0.3× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
- 04:47SignalMEDIUM
Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 03:59Scheduled resolutionHIGH
Expiry passed 1h ago; awaiting UMA confirmation
Price movement
+66.5pp over the last 24h, now 100¢.
Biggest hourly move: +75.0pp at 04:00 (to 100¢).
Show top 8 of 41 hourly moves
- 04:00 · +75.0pp → 100¢
- 17:00 · +9.0pp → 34¢
- 09:00 · +9.0pp → 35¢
- 1d ago · +9.5pp → 36¢
- 2d ago · +9.5pp → 36¢
- 2d ago · +9.0pp → 35¢
- 2d ago · +9.0pp → 35¢
- 2d ago · +10.0pp → 36¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
2Market Description
This market will resolve to "Mosley Jr." if Shane Mosley Jr. is officially declared the winner of the fight against Serhii Bohachuk at Zuffa Boxing 6: Mosley Jr. vs. Bohachuk, scheduled for May 10, 2026. It will resolve to "Bohachuk" if Serhii Bohachuk is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 24, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.ufc.com/.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Zuffa Boxing 6: Mosley Jr. vs. Bohachuk (Middleweight, Main)"?
As of Mon, 11 May 2026 04:47:00 GMT, YES is priced at 100% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +66.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.4pp in the last hour, and +74.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by May 11, 2026 (2026-05-11T03:59:59.999Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.ufc.com/.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.ufc.com/. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$9.7K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $9.8K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $30.6K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 0.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.
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