Research Library

Prediction market research guides

Evergreen explainers for analysts, builders, and teams who need to understand movement, source quality, resolution risk, and verification workflows.

Research guides
Durable questions

Evergreen topics

Each guide focuses on one recurring prediction-market problem rather than a short-lived headline.

Structured

Article + FAQ

Every article ships JSON-LD plus direct answers for answer engines.

Citation friendly

Clean text

Source-friendly text routes keep the evidence readable for archives, teams, and agents.

Research topics

The library is grouped around durable research problems: analytics, resolution, large-trade flow, agents, x402, teams, APIs, and venue data. Each guide includes direct answers, source context, and product workflow links.

Agent docs
Resolution 4Agents 3Data 2Large Trades 2Signals 2Alerts 1API 1APIs 1Crypto 1Monitoring 1Newsrooms 1Politics 1Scanner 1Teams 1Tools 1Wallets 1Workflow 1x402 1
Signals2026-05-17 · 7 min

Prediction market signals: momentum, divergence, flow, and resolution risk

Signals are useful only when they separate what happened from what to verify next. This guide explains Orrery's four core signal families and why none of them is a trade recommendation.

prediction market signalsPolymarket signalsprediction market analyticsmarket momentum
Resolution2026-05-17 · 8 min

Polymarket resolution risk: how markets settle and what to verify

The headline asks one thing. The resolution rule may decide another. Here is the verification loop Orrery uses before treating a market as clean.

Polymarket resolution riskPolymarket resolution rulesUMA optimistic oracleprediction market settlement
Large Trades2026-05-17 · 7 min

Polymarket whale tracking: what large trades actually mean

A large trade is evidence of attention, not proof of skill. The useful question is whether size, timing, wallet history, and market context agree.

Polymarket whale trackerPolymarket large tradesprediction market whaleslarge trade flow Polymarket
Agents2026-05-17 · 8 min

Prediction market API for AI agents: grounded market intelligence

Agents do not need vague market commentary. They need structured, fresh, citeable market intelligence with clear limits and machine-readable next calls.

prediction market APIPolymarket API for AI agentsx402 APIAI agent market data
Tools2026-05-17 · 7 min

Best Polymarket analytics tools: how to choose a prediction market dashboard

The best analytics tool is not the one with the most charts. It is the one that turns live market data into a shorter, safer research queue.

best Polymarket analytics toolsPolymarket dashboardprediction market analytics toolsPolymarket scanner
Large Trades2026-05-17 · 7 min

How to track Polymarket whales without mistaking size for skill

Whale tracking is useful when it tells you where attention is moving. It becomes dangerous when one large trade is treated as proof.

how to track Polymarket whalesPolymarket whale trackerPolymarket wallet trackingprediction market whales
Resolution2026-05-17 · 8 min

How Polymarket markets resolve: rules, sources, UMA, and finality

Markets do not resolve because a chart reaches 99 percent. They resolve according to rules, sources, and oracle finality.

how Polymarket markets resolvePolymarket market resolutionPolymarket settlement rulesUMA oracle Polymarket
Agents2026-05-17 · 8 min

Prediction market API for agents: what autonomous systems should call first

Agents do not need another odds table. They need a ranked queue, citations, risk flags, and next calls they can execute safely.

prediction market API for agentsAI agent prediction market APIPolymarket API agentsx402 prediction market API
Signals2026-05-17 · 7 min

Polymarket signals explained: momentum, flow, divergence, and source risk

Signals are not magic. They are labels for observable market conditions that deserve either attention, verification, or silence.

Polymarket signals explainedPolymarket momentum signalprediction market signalsPolymarket flow signal
Data2026-05-17 · 8 min

Polymarket vs Kalshi data: how prediction market datasets differ

Prediction market data is not interchangeable. Venue rules, contract design, resolution, and API shape change how analytics should be built.

Polymarket vs Kalshi dataPolymarket Kalshi APIprediction market dataKalshi data
Politics2026-05-17 · 8 min

Election prediction markets: how to read odds, volume, and resolution rules

Election markets are tempting because the headline is familiar. That familiarity is exactly why the rule, source, and timing deserve extra care.

election prediction marketselection odds Polymarketpolitical prediction marketsprediction market election data
Crypto2026-05-17 · 7 min

Crypto prediction markets: how to read price, volume, and event risk

Crypto markets move quickly, but prediction market contracts still resolve slowly and specifically. Treat both truths as part of the data.

crypto prediction marketsBitcoin prediction marketsPolymarket crypto marketsETH prediction market
Scanner2026-05-17 · 7 min

Polymarket market scanner: how to find live markets worth checking

A scanner is useful when it turns thousands of markets into a clean research queue, not when it simply lists prices.

Polymarket market scannerprediction market scannerPolymarket live marketsmarket movement scanner
Monitoring2026-05-17 · 8 min

How to monitor prediction markets without missing important moves

Monitoring is a loop: scan, inspect, save, alert, brief, and verify. Skipping any part creates blind spots.

how to monitor prediction marketsprediction market monitoringprediction market watchlistprediction market alerts
Alerts2026-05-17 · 8 min

Prediction market alerting: thresholds, resolution risk, whales, and webhooks

Alerts are where research terminals become retention products. The hard part is firing the right alert with the right context.

prediction market alertsPolymarket alertsprediction market webhookmarket movement alerts
Resolution2026-05-17 · 7 min

UMA disputes explained for Polymarket users

A proposed outcome is not the same thing as final settlement. UMA state belongs next to every serious resolution workflow.

UMA disputes explainedPolymarket UMA disputeUMA optimistic oraclePolymarket settlement
Wallets2026-05-17 · 8 min

Polymarket wallet tracking: activity, context, and what not to assume

Wallet tracking is useful for attention and context. It becomes dangerous when it pretends every large trader is right.

Polymarket wallet trackingPolymarket walletsprediction market wallet trackingPolymarket whale wallet
API2026-05-17 · 8 min

Best prediction-market data APIs: what teams and agents should compare

The best API is not just raw market JSON. It gives agents and teams clean interpretation with rules, risks, and stable contracts.

best prediction market data APIprediction market APIPolymarket APIKalshi API
x4022026-05-17 · 7 min

What is x402? HTTP payments for AI agents explained

x402 turns payment into part of the HTTP request cycle. For agents, that means buying one answer at a time.

what is x402x402 paymentsHTTP 402 payment requiredAI agent payments
Agents2026-05-17 · 9 min

How to build an AI agent for prediction markets

A good prediction-market agent is not a trader in disguise. It is a disciplined research assistant with sources, limits, and a budget.

build AI agent prediction marketsprediction market AI agentPolymarket AI agentx402 agent API
Teams2026-05-17 · 8 min

Prediction market dashboard for teams: shared monitoring workflow

Teams do not need another chart wall. They need one shared queue: what moved, what changed, what needs verification, and who should be alerted.

prediction market dashboard for teamsprediction market monitoringPolymarket team dashboardevent market research desk
Newsrooms2026-05-17 · 7 min

Prediction markets for newsrooms: what moved before the story

Prediction markets can help newsrooms notice attention shifts early. They still require source checks, rule checks, and editorial restraint.

prediction markets for newsroomsprediction market monitoring newsroomPolymarket news workflowevent markets journalism
APIs2026-05-17 · 8 min

Event-market data APIs: what builders should normalize first

Event-market APIs are useful only when the response separates public data, derived status, resolution context, and the action an agent should take next.

event market data APIprediction market data APIPolymarket APIKalshi API comparison
Data2026-05-17 · 7 min

Polymarket CLOB data explained: prices, liquidity, spreads, and depth

A market price is only useful when you know how liquid it is, how wide the spread is, and whether the book can support the conclusion.

Polymarket CLOB dataPolymarket order bookprediction market liquidityprediction market spread
Workflow2026-05-17 · 8 min

Prediction-market research workflow: scanner, detail, watchlist, alert, brief

The strongest research terminal is not the one with the most rows. It is the one that tells you what to verify next.

prediction market research workflowprediction market scanner workflowPolymarket research workflowmarket watchlist alerts
Resolution2026-05-17 · 6 min

Why 99¢ is not always resolved in prediction markets

A rail-pinned price is a market opinion. Official resolution is a source-status fact. Confusing the two creates bad research.

99c not resolved prediction marketPolymarket 99 cents resolvedprediction market pinned pricerail pinned market
Research Library - prediction market guides | Orrery