Agut vs. Martinez: Match O/U 22.5

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 46¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 4.0pp shift. Directional flow is consistent with new information being priced in; the underlying source isn't tagged in the market metadata.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source on Polymarket — the market description names where settlement comes from.
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.