Wild vs. Galan: Match O/U 22.5

Why

Probability rose modestly up to 50¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 2.5pp shift. Directional flow is consistent with new information being priced in; the underlying source isn't tagged in the market metadata.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source on Polymarket — the market description names where settlement comes from.
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.