The market moved
-1.0ppin 24h · now 18¢
Will Beijing Guoan FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC end in a draw?
Sports · resolves May 15 · vol $191.75
Why
Probability fell slightly down to 18¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 1.0pp shift. Resolution depends on official statistics — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: official statistics.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
- Market resolves in 26.4h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.