Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on May 14?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 1¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 2.7pp shift. Resolution depends on wunderground.com — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: wunderground.com — https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 30.9h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.