The market moved
+3.8ppin 24h · now 10¢
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on May 17?
Weather · resolves May 17 · vol $326.21
Why
Probability rose modestly up to 10¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 3.8pp shift. Resolution depends on wunderground.com — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: wunderground.com — https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
- Market resolves in 27.1h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.