The market moved
-11.3ppin 24h · now 8¢
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on May 17?
Weather · resolves May 17 · vol $1.4K
Why
Probability fell sharply down to 8¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 11.3pp shift. Resolution depends on weather.gov — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: weather.gov — https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
- Market resolves in 23.0h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.