The market moved
-8.5ppin 24h · now 15¢
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 31°C on May 14?
Weather · resolves May 14 · vol $276.56
Why
Probability fell decisively down to 15¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 8.5pp shift. Resolution depends on wunderground.com — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: wunderground.com — https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
- Market resolves in 4.1h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.