The market moved
-4.0ppin 24h · now 12¢
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on May 17?
Weather · resolves May 17 · vol $304.12
Why
Probability fell modestly down to 12¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 4.0pp shift. Resolution depends on weather.gov — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: weather.gov — https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
- Market resolves in 22.8h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.