Spread: CD Tondela (-1.5)

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 23¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 22.5pp shift. Resolution depends on official statistics — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: official statistics.
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 2.3h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.