The market moved

-0.5ppin 24h · now 52¢

Casa Pia AC vs. Rio Ave FC: Both Teams to Score

Sports · resolves May 16 · vol $105.96

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 52¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.5pp shift. Resolution depends on official statistics — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: official statistics.
  • Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
  • Market resolves in 11.9h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.