The market moved
+12.2ppin 24h · now 62¢
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on May 15?
Macro · resolves May 15 · vol $15.3K
Why
Probability rose sharply up to 62¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 12.2pp shift. Resolution depends on pyth futures price feed — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: Pyth futures price feed — https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
- Market resolves in 4.4h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.