The market moved
-44.8ppin 24h · now 5¢
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 13?
Macro · resolves May 13 · vol $199.88
Why
Probability fell sharply down to 5¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 44.8pp shift. Resolution depends on pyth futures price feed — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: Pyth futures price feed — https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
- Market resolves in 6.8h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.
