The market moved
-49.4ppin 24h · now 1¢
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $765 on May 15?
Macro · resolves May 15 · vol $2.5K
Why
Probability fell sharply down to 1¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 49.4pp shift. Resolution depends on pyth futures price feed — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: Pyth futures price feed — https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
- Market resolves in 4.5h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.