The market moved
+4.0ppin 24h · now 67¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
Geopolitics · resolves Dec 31 · vol $92.1K
Why
Probability rose modestly up to 67¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 4.0pp shift. Resolution depends on official government information — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: Official government information.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.