The market moved

+23.0ppin 24h · now 39¢

Will Moon Sung-yu win the 2026 Jeju Province Gubernatorial Election?

Geopolitics · resolves Jun 3 · vol $154.38

Why

Probability rose sharply up to 39¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 23.0pp shift. Resolution depends on nato — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: nato.
  • Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.