0x00850cd0d1905e8e43936bac494528c6bd5fb322
0x00850cd0d1905e8e43936bac494528c6bd5fb322
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$485.76
Total PnL
$-815.35
Realised
$-2.47
Win rate
43%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?
107 shares @ 78.0¢·now 68.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$73.49
$-10.19
- NO
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?
75 shares @ 94.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$67.42
$-2.61
- NO
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?
67 shares @ 89.8¢·now 89.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$59.93
$-0.54
- NO
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
58 shares @ 95.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$53.78
$-0.86
- NO
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31?
43 shares @ 96.2¢·now 94.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$40.42
$-0.93
- NO
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
49 shares @ 70.1¢·now 69.3¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$34.00
$-0.37
- NO
Will Pakistan join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
26 shares @ 97.0¢·now 95.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$24.91
$-0.52
- NO
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?
25 shares @ 91.0¢·now 88.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$21.56
$-0.73
- NO
Will Egypt join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
20 shares @ 97.0¢·now 93.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$18.86
$-0.67
- NO
Will Qatar join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
18 shares @ 97.0¢·now 95.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.41
$-0.38
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?$30.30Jul 22, 01:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?$4.08Jul 22, 01:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?$26.10Jul 22, 01:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?$2.22Jul 21, 20:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?$1.98Jul 21, 20:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in July?$0.71Jul 21, 20:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in July?$0.71Jul 21, 20:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a European country take military action on Iran by July 31?$0.24Jul 21, 20:34 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYHamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?$35.02Jul 21, 07:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYHamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?$35.02Jul 21, 07:18 UTC
- REDEEMWashington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies$63.24Jul 21, 04:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?$4.90Jul 21, 02:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?$4.90Jul 21, 02:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWashington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies$28.90Jul 21, 02:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWashington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies$28.90Jul 21, 02:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYSan Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves$27.52Jul 20, 23:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYSan Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves$28.18Jul 20, 23:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
43% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $11.70
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 19, 09:43 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 01:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.