Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31?
Probability
8¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-2.0pp
24h Vol
$30.00
Liquidity
$30.3K
Probability (last 7 days)
-2.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5989.1h
- 10:54SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5989h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 10¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 10¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 10¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 10¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 10¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 10¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Claudia Sheinbaum ceases to be President of Mexico for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Claudia Sheinbaum's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Claudia Sheinbaum and the government of Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).