These-Alloy
0x01b4b329497a0fb4da1f98b441439d06e408fbe4
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$7.78
Total PnL
$-180.53
Realised
$8.50
Win rate
66%
123 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 14?
3 shares @ 23.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$2.93
$2.26
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 12?
3 shares @ 33.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026$2.90
$1.94
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14?
2 shares @ 36.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$1.95
$1.25
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?
1500 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026$0.00
$-8.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 24?
667 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in April 2026?
667 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 14?
586 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.17
- YES
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 6 to April 8, 2026?
571 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 8, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 24?
530 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.93
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on July 16?$0.11Jul 16, 20:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on July 16?$0.54Jul 16, 19:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on July 16?$0.19Jul 16, 19:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on July 16?$0.08Jul 16, 15:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on July 16?$0.09Jul 16, 14:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 16?$0.21Jul 16, 11:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 16?$0.33Jul 16, 10:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on July 16?$0.71Jul 16, 10:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 16?$0.09Jul 16, 10:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 16?$0.25Jul 16, 10:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 16?$0.05Jul 16, 10:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 16?$0.61Jul 16, 09:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on July 16?$1.01Jul 16, 07:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on July 16?$1.00Jul 16, 06:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 30°C on July 16?$0.79Jul 16, 06:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 25?$0.01Jun 25, 06:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 25?$0.09Jun 25, 06:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 25?$0.13Jun 25, 06:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 25?$0.03Jun 25, 04:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 25?$0.06Jun 25, 04:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
73/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
66% win rate over 123 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 30/100.
123 closed markets, 66% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $0.36
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 24, 05:58 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 16, 20:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 123 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.