OtherMulti-outcomeExpires May 1, 2026

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?

Probability

1¢

-0.9pp

24h

-5.0pp

24h Vol

$35.6K

Liquidity

$35.5K

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d

Apr 21, 2026, 06:00Apr 25, 2026, 15:51

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors

1
Down 5pp over 24h
Now 1¢; -0.9pp in the last hour.
2
Momentum signal firing
Probability moved down 5.0pp in 24h with 1.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.

What to track next

Set an alert if probability recovers above 6¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
Watch the next 6–24 hours: momentum signals historically extend on this kind of setup but pay spread on entry. Compare to /backtest for the rule's historical performance.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice

0s agoResolve
Market resolves in 144.1h
LOW
15:52Signal
Signal · Momentum down
Probability moved down 5.0pp in 24h with 1.0× liquidity turnover and a tight spread.
MEDIUM
08:00Price
Probability up 3.1pp
to 5¢
MEDIUM
06:00Price
Probability up 4.3pp
to 6¢
MEDIUM
05:00Price
Probability up 4.5pp
to 6¢
MEDIUM
03:00Price
Probability up 3.8pp
to 6¢
MEDIUM
02:00Price
Probability up 3.6pp
to 6¢
MEDIUM
00:00Price
Probability up 3.1pp
to 6¢
MEDIUM
23:00Price
Probability up 4.8pp
to 7¢
MEDIUM
21:00Price
Probability up 5.7pp
to 8¢
MEDIUM
20:00Price
Probability up 4.7pp
to 8¢
MEDIUM
19:00Price
Probability up 3.0pp
to 7¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 3.8pp
to 7¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 3.1pp
to 6¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 4.5pp
to 7¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 6.1pp
to 8¢
MEDIUM

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Same eventElon Musk # tweets April 24 - May 1, 2026?

Category · Other

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 24 12:00 PM ET to May 1, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: May 1, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: https://x.com/elonmuskSocial media post
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket