Flat-Tenet
0x01dad789564cbbf6ffcb5a97021bb52b244dea89
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
19
Open notional
$2.0K
Total PnL
$-17.8K
Realised
$939.85
Win rate
75%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 19- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
10000 shares @ 18.4¢·now 20.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$2.0K
$169.63
- YES
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?
4000 shares @ 9.6¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$2.00
$-382.00
- NO
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?
10000 shares @ 8.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026$0.00
$-838.27
- NO
Hungary Election: TISZA wins a constitutional majority?
9000 shares @ 9.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-859.52
- YES
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
8000 shares @ 21.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.7K
- YES
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
7000 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-980.47
- NO
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?
6000 shares @ 55.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-3.3K
- YES
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
5000 shares @ 39.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-1.9K
- YES
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31?
4000 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-280.00
- NO
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?
4000 shares @ 25.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.0K
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.18Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.18Jul 28, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.18Jul 27, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.18Jul 26, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.18Jul 25, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.18Jul 24, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.18Jul 23, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.18Jul 22, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.18Jul 21, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.18Jul 20, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.18Jul 19, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.18Jul 18, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.18Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.18Jul 16, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.18Jul 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.18Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.18Jul 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.18Jul 12, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.18Jul 11, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.18Jul 10, 00:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 10, 00:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.